Insights
Weekly market commentary, quarterly updates, seminars and articles from the portfolio management team.
All insights
Weekly update
18 Oct 2026 · 8 min read
ReadFrom an inflation scare to a growth scare
US inflation ran hot and yields still fell, because the market stopped worrying about the Fed and started worrying about who pays for the AI build out. Australian credit split cleanly between high grade financials and high beta corporates.
Weekly update
12 Oct 2026 · 7 min read
ReadThe auctions did what the data could not
The US 10-year touched its highest yield since 2002 on Wednesday and then fell, not on the data but on two well-bid Treasury auctions. Credit stayed in a stand-off between holders who will not sell and buyers who want more spread.
Weekly update
5 Oct 2026 · 6 min read
ReadThe long end has stopped listening to the data
US payrolls missed badly and the 10-year Treasury still closed higher. Benchmark yields are at the highs of the year in every major market while credit spreads have hardly moved. That is not a contradiction. The forces lifting long yields are not credit forces.
Research
25 Sep 2026 · 4 min read
ReadInflation and why the inflation-linked bond market is not a forecast
Renny Ellis on what the inflation-linked bond market does and does not tell you about the path of inflation, and how Arculus reads it.
Research note
13 Jul 2026 · 8 min read
Wholesale clients only
ReadTaylor Rule sensitivity analysis: United States and Australia
Sensitivity matrices for the rule-implied policy rate under a range of neutral-rate and inflation assumptions. On current core PCE the rule sits 100–200bp above the funds rate; in Australia a positive output gap validates the cash rate at a modest trimmed-mean assumption.
Quarterly update
9 Jul 2026 · 29 pages
ReadOutlook: June quarter 2026
The quarterly outlook: dangerous times ahead, the baby-boomer shift, timing and technical analysis, the June 2026 review of AUD fixed income and credit markets, and the above-BBB– portfolio positioning report.
Background paper
3 Jul 2026 · 25 min read
Wholesale clients only
ReadKevin Warsh: a background paper on his monetary theory and policy views
Career, intellectual influences and record of the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve. Less a doctrinaire hawk than a market-oriented pragmatist: fewer signals, a higher bar for balance-sheet intervention, closer attention to asset prices.
Research paper
30 Jun 2026 · 15 min read
Wholesale clients only
ReadThe Hormuz shock: commodity price transmission, drivers and curve-implied outlook
Oil and urea, priced on liquid forward curves, have round-tripped. Sulphur and helium, with no curve, kept rising after the strait reopened. Why market structure, not just physical exposure, sets how a commodity prices a geopolitical shock.
Research
30 Jun 2026 · 1 min read
ReadMonetary policy outlook — June 2026
A one-page view of where Arculus expects the cash rate and bank bill rates to travel over the coming year.
Weekly update
25 May 2026 · 9 pages
ReadWeekly update: 25 May 2026
A pivotal week for the Treasury market: FOMC minutes confirm the hawkish drift, the US 10-year breaks out above 4.60% before easing on Iran headlines, and a weak jobs print lifts unemployment to 4.5%.
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